Le rasoir d’Ockham: l’épée dans le pré, la sociologie et les chaines de causalité

Le rasoir d’Ockham est un principe essentiel. En quoi consiste t’il? Lorsque plusieurs explications sont possibles pour un phénomène, la plus simple sera toujours privilégiée. Qu’est ce que l’explication la plus simple? Elle est celle qui requiert le moins d’hypothèses supplémentaires pour fonctionner.

Une illustration de ce principe est donnée dans le film Jeanne d’Arc de Besson. Le personnage de Jeanne trouve une épée dans un pré, et considère que cette épée est un signe, envoyé par Dieu lui même, en occultant toutes les autres hypothèses. L’hypothèse la plus simple aurait été qu’un homme eut simplement perdu son épée dans ce champ.

Sur des phénomènes complexes, le temps de recherche pour aboutir à la bonne solution est une donnée importante à prendre en compte. Il faut savoir dans quelle direction chercher et quelles hypothèses valider. Moins il y a d’hypothèses à vérifier, plus l’explication donnée devient vérifiable rapidement. Ainsi, multiplier les hypothèses improbables pour privilégier une explication farfelue permet d’expliquer douteusement n’importe quel phénomène, mais ne permet surement pas de le comprendre.

Chez les idéologues, on retrouve très souvent ce biais. De toutes les hypothèses, on ne retient pas celle la plus probable, mais celle la plus arrangeante. La plus probable est écartée purement et simplement sans jugement.

Une forme particulière de ce déni est très courante: l’inversion de la cause et de la conséquence. En effet, pour une majeure partie des phénomènes sociaux, l’étude du monde ne peut se faire que par le prisme des corrélations. Or, lorsque deux évènements sont fortement corrélés, il existe deux explications: est ce le premier qui est la cause du second? Ou bien le second qui est la cause du premier?

Est ce par exemple la pauvreté qui génère de la criminalité? Ou bien la criminalité qui génère de la pauvreté? Est ce l’intelligence qui permet un haut niveau d’éducation? Ou bien un haut niveau d’éducation qui permet l’intelligence? Est ce que tel groupe est “stigmatisé” parce qu’il est mauvais, ou bien est ce qu’il est mauvais parce qu’il est “stigmatisé”?

L’idéologue occultera 50% des explications possibles pour privilégier la chaine de causalité qui correspond à sa vision du monde, sans pour autant nier les faits en tant que tels. Ainsi, quelqu’un appliquant la raison se doit d’accepter l’hypothèse qu’il puisse exister un autre ordre dans la chaine de causalités qu’il perçoit. Si un ordre alternatif fournit une explication bien plus solide et simple, cet ordre doit être privilégié.

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